Figures set to reveal summer boost for UK economy
Analysts are predicting that official figures due to be released on Friday by the ONS will show UK economic growth rebounding in the second quarter.
The consensus among economists is forecasting that GDP growth will have hit 0.4% between April and June, following a slump to 0.2% in the first three months of the year.
It’s very much a case of the summer sun encouraging consumers to spend money after what was a long, cold Brexit-infused winter.
Andrew Goodwin, the lead UK economist at Oxford Economics, said: “The month-on-month outturns for GDP in April and May were strong, at 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, largely because of a rebound after March’s snow-related disruption and a couple of very strong months for retail sales.
“But, with retail sales edging down in June, the service sector is likely to provide less impetus and ensure a weaker outturn for monthly GDP growth of around 0.1%. However, this would still generate quarterly growth of 0.4% for Q2 as a whole.”
Investec too are expecting that June GDP growth will struggle to match May’s, which has the extra boost of a royal wedding and two bank holidays.
“Principally, the expansion in construction output is almost certain to have moderated from May’s two-year high,” said Investec analyst Victoria Clarke. “The services sector may also have seen a more moderate pace of growth, as we have already seen in the retail sales figures. In contrast, we expect activity to pick up in the industrial sector.”